Uganda Pushes For First Oil Production Amid Scepticism

Uganda is intensifying its push to become Africa’s newest oil exporter, with the government maintaining that first oil could be realised within the year. However, industry analysts caution that the timeline appears optimistic given lingering execution risks.

The East African economy, home to roughly 52 million people, has identified hydrocarbons as a central pillar of its growth strategy. Authorities estimate that oil production could lift GDP growth above 10%, reflecting the anticipated macroeconomic impact. In support of this target, approximately $6.57 million has recently been allocated to accelerate critical upstream and midstream developments.
Yet delivery timelines remain under pressure. Wambui Njehu, Great Lakes Analyst at Control Risks, suggests that current projections may reflect a best-case scenario. While a commissioning event, potentially involving limited initial output, could take place within the stated timeframe, core infrastructure is unlikely to be fully operational. Slippages across engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) phases have already been recorded, making a mid-2026 start increasingly improbable. A more realistic timeline, she argues, would be early 2027.

Notwithstanding these constraints, progress across key projects is evident. Development of the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields is advancing, while the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) remains central to Uganda’s export ambitions. The 1,443-kilometre pipeline will connect production facilities in Hoima to Tanzania’s Port of Tanga, providing essential export infrastructure for the country’s landlocked reserves.
Uganda’s upstream drive also aligns with broader global supply considerations. Recent geopolitical disruptions affecting key transit routes have underscored the vulnerability of import-dependent markets, reinforcing the strategic case for new African producers.

However, downstream plans remain less certain. The proposed domestic refinery has faced prolonged delays and shifting investor participation, raising questions over execution. Even so, Uganda’s oil programme reflects a wider continental trend: leveraging natural resources to drive industrialisation, enhance energy security and strengthen long-term economic resilience.