South Africa May Avoid Fuel Supply Crunch Despite Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered renewed concerns over global fuel supply after attacks on oil infrastructure and the disruption of shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which a significant share of the world’s oil trade flows. Yet South Africa may be less exposed to immediate supply disruptions than many other countries.

Iran’s ambassador to South Africa, Mansour Shakib Mehr, said the waterway has not been completely closed. Instead, Iranian authorities are selectively allowing vessels from countries considered neutral or friendly to pass after verification checks.

According to the ambassador, ships linked to China and India have been granted passage, while cargoes associated with the United States and Israel are being blocked. Tehran has reportedly indicated it would be willing to extend similar transit arrangements to South Africa should Pretoria request assistance moving freight or oil shipments through the region. Shipping intelligence firm Windward said several vessels have already exited the strait through Iranian-controlled waters, suggesting the selective passage system is operational.

Commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva from JPMorgan said tankers have been tracked leaving via the Larak–Qeshm channel near the Iranian coastline — an unusual route likely used to verify vessel ownership and cargo before transit approval. Despite the geopolitical tension pushing oil prices sharply higher, South Africa’s import structure could cushion the immediate impact. The country sources only around a quarter of its crude from Saudi Arabia, with much of the remainder coming from Nigeria and Angola.

Additionally, a significant share of refined fuel imports originates from Port Sultan Qaboos in Oman, which lies outside the immediate disruption zone. However, domestic fuel prices are still expected to rise as global markets react to the crisis. Early estimates suggest petrol could increase by about $0.23 per litre in April, while diesel prices may climb by more than $0.40 per litre.

Economist Johann Els of PSG Financial Services said a swift diplomatic resolution to the conflict would be the best outcome for fuel markets.
Meanwhile, Gwede Mantashe has reiterated the government’s push to expand domestic refining capacity beyond facilities such as the NATREF refinery, the Astron Energy refinery, and the Sasol Secunda coal-to-liquids plant.

Whether South Africa pursues Iran’s proposed shipping arrangement remains unclear, but the country’s diversified supply routes may help mitigate the risk of immediate shortages.