Nigeria’s Rising Oil Production Eases Fiscal Pressures, Says Edun

Nigeria’s rising crude oil production is providing the government with greater fiscal flexibility as it continues its economic reform programme, Finance Minister Wale Edun has said. Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, Edun said output has increased to around 1.8 million barrels per day. The gain, he noted, is strengthening revenues, foreign exchange inflows and overall fiscal stability in Africa’s largest oil producer.

The production rebound comes as Nigeria advances one of its most far-reaching reform agendas in decades, including the removal of fuel subsidies, currency adjustments and tax system changes. Together with higher oil output, these measures have supported economic growth of about 4%, even as underlying structural pressures persist.

Edun said the improved fiscal position would allow the government to provide more targeted support to vulnerable households, rather than reverting to broad-based subsidy schemes. “It gives us that extra fiscal space within which to look at helping vulnerable households at this time,” he said, adding that there is no consideration of reinstating untargeted fuel subsidies.

On energy security, Edun highlighted stable fuel availability nationwide, crediting the expansion of domestic refining capacity—particularly the Dangote refinery—for ensuring consistent supplies of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel.

Despite these gains, inflation remains a key policy challenge. New data this week showed consumer prices accelerating in March for the first time in a year, adding pressure ahead of elections scheduled for early next year. High interest rates, elevated debt-service costs and weak non-oil revenues continue to constrain fiscal space, leaving the economy heavily exposed to oil market fluctuations.

Edun acknowledged heightened global uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions that could weigh on global growth and energy demand. He said the impact on Nigeria would depend on how prolonged such disruptions become, ranging from limited effects to broader global slowdown risks.

The International Monetary Fund recently revised Nigeria’s growth forecast to 4.1%, citing improved macroeconomic stability but warning of headwinds from higher import and transport costs. The Fund expects gradual strengthening in the coming years as reforms take hold.

Despite external risks, Edun said the government remains committed to its reform path and believes economic resilience is improving. He also confirmed that Nigeria is not seeking financial support from the IMF, signalling confidence in its current fiscal trajectory.