Nigeria Targets $50bn Deep Offshore Investment

Nigeria is moving to unlock a new wave of deep offshore investment after President Bola Tinubu approved a framework designed to attract up to $50 billion in capital and revive oil and gas projects that have remained stalled for years.

The new regime, introduced through the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, replaces the previous project-by-project approach with defined eligibility requirements and implementation procedures for qualifying developments.

The framework will initially support the long-delayed $10 billion Bonga South West project, while creating a broader pathway for other deep offshore developments. The reform also gives NNPC Limited, Nigeria’s nominated counterparty under production sharing contracts, the authority to pursue the contractual amendments required to bring qualifying projects within the new incentive structure.

The move follows President Tinubu’s discussions with Shell chief executive Wael Sawan, during which the administration identified the need for greater fiscal and regulatory certainty to unlock investment in Nigeria’s offshore resources. Rather than negotiating incentives individually, the new framework establishes a common structure intended to improve predictability for international operators and investors.

For Nigeria’s energy sector, the implications extend beyond upstream production. The government expects qualifying projects to maximise in-country execution where commercially and technically viable, supporting domestic engineering, fabrication, marine logistics, technical services and project management.

Olu Arowolo-Verheijen, the president’s special adviser on oil and gas, said the policy was designed to translate offshore investment into broader economic activity, including skilled employment and stronger local supply chains.

The initiative comes as Nigeria seeks to reverse years of underinvestment in its upstream sector, particularly in capital-intensive deepwater developments. Greater project certainty could be critical to securing the long-term financing and investment commitments required for complex offshore projects.

Tinubu said the framework was intended to provide investors with clearer rules while ensuring Nigeria captures greater value from its resources.
“The countries that attract long-term investment are not necessarily those with the greatest natural resources. They are the ones that provide the greatest certainty,” he said.

The administration now faces the challenge of turning the new framework into executed projects, with industry attention likely to focus on how quickly contractual changes are implemented and whether the incentives can translate into final investment decisions across Nigeria’s deep offshore portfolio.