Libya Seeks $40 Billion to Rebuild Oil Sector and Reach 2 Million Bpd

Libya is positioning its oil sector for a major investment cycle, seeking between $30 billion and $40 billion to unlock undeveloped reserves, modernise ageing infrastructure and lift crude production to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030.

The investment push reflects a broader effort to restore capacity in an industry constrained by years of political instability, underinvestment, security disruptions and repeated blockades of oil infrastructure.
With proven crude reserves estimated at around 48 billion barrels, Libya holds Africa’s largest oil reserves and remains strategically important to international markets. Its proximity to Europe, combined with the light, low-sulphur quality of much of its crude, has made the Mediterranean market a key destination for Libyan exports.

Before the 2011 uprising, Libya produced more than 1.6 million bpd. Production has since fluctuated significantly as conflict and political divisions disrupted fields, pipelines and export terminals.
The country currently produces around 1.4 million bpd but sees significant upside from its undeveloped resource base. The National Oil Corporation (NOC) has identified more than 60 discovered oil and gas fields that have yet to be developed, creating opportunities across exploration, production and supporting infrastructure.

Libya is also considering changes to its investment framework, including production-sharing agreements. Proposed reforms could shift more upfront development financing towards international partners, reducing the burden on the state and potentially accelerating project execution.
The country is simultaneously broadening its role in Africa’s energy trade. In 2026, Libyan crude was supplied to Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery, marking a new route for its exports beyond established European buyers. Nigeria imported about 64,500 bpd of Libyan crude in May.

International interest is also returning. Eni, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ConocoPhillips maintain interests in Libya, while July’s agreement with Qatar-based UCC Holding for exploration and production in Area 47 is expected to attract about $1 billion.

However, political and security risks remain significant. Rival authorities in eastern and western Libya continue to complicate governance, while attacks on critical infrastructure, including the Zawiya refinery, highlight ongoing operational risks.

Fuel subsidies, imports and smuggling add further pressure to public finances. For investors, Libya offers substantial geological potential and strategic market access. Unlocking that opportunity, however, will depend on whether the country can provide the political stability, security and regulatory certainty required to support long-term capital deployment.