Africa’s Solar Market Enters a New Phase of Rapid Expansion
Africa’s solar market is moving beyond its traditional strongholds, with installations forecast to reach 17GW in 2026 as falling panel costs accelerate deployment across a growing number of markets.
Energy think tank Ember estimates that roughly 100,000 solar panels are being installed across the continent every day this year, representing a 45% increase in capacity additions compared with 2025.
The acceleration follows growth of 51% in 2025 and 25% in 2024. Ember’s estimates draw on Chinese customs data and account for the time lag between panel imports and their eventual installation, providing an early indication of deployment before official national statistics become available.
The shift is increasingly visible outside South Africa, historically Africa’s largest solar market. South Africa is expected to represent less than 20% of the continent’s installations in 2026, its lowest share since 2019.
Meanwhile, 19 African countries recorded year-on-year installation growth of more than 100%. The Democratic Republic of Congo saw capacity surge by 544%, while Zimbabwe recorded 282% growth. Egypt and Zambia posted increases of 176% and 117%, respectively.
The scale of deployment is also beginning to reshape national power systems. In Senegal, solar additions between 2023 and 2026 are equivalent to almost 80% of the country’s entire grid capacity in 2023. In the DRC and Kenya, new solar capacity is equivalent to more than half of their respective 2023 grid capacity.
Ember estimates the 17GW added in 2026 could generate around 23TWh of electricity annually – equivalent to 2.3% of Africa’s power generation and slightly above the continent’s average annual electricity demand growth of 2.2% recorded between 2014 and 2024.
However, the rapid expansion is exposing a major data gap. Only 12 African countries publish official or semi-official figures for distributed solar, making the scale of off-grid and behind-the-meter deployment difficult to track.
Manufacturing is beginning to develop alongside demand. African solar-panel production is expected to reach 3.5GW in 2026, led by new facilities in Egypt and Tanzania. Yet the continent remains highly dependent on imports, with 94% of installed panels still originating from China.
For the sector, the next constraint may be finance rather than technology. Limited access to capital and high upfront system costs continue to restrict deployment, particularly for households, businesses and utilities seeking to reduce long-term electricity costs.
Africa’s solar boom is therefore gathering pace – but converting installation growth into a more resilient electricity system will depend on financing, better data, stronger grids and the integration of rapidly expanding distributed generation.
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